Parameter | Value (range used in the deterministic sensitivity analysis) | Parameters used in probabilistic sensitivity analysis | Source | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clinical effectiveness for treating PTSD (and depression if present). Used in the decision tree part of the model | Â | Â | Beta distribution | Â | |
 |  |  | α | β |  |
TF-CBT only | 0.42 (0.29 - 0.55)* | 24.3 | 33.6 | ||
TF-CBT + SSRI (setraline) | 0.44 (0.31 - 0.57)* | 23.5 | 29.9 | Â | |
Non-directive counselling | 0.34 (0.24 - 0.44)* | 27.8 | 54.0 | Â | |
Clinical effectiveness for treating recurrent depression (used in Markov part of the model) with SSRI | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
SSRI only (applied to treatment non-responders, and responders who relapsed into depression in the Markov part of the model) | 0.6 (0.42 - 0.78) | 16.5 | 11.0 | ||
Disease pathways parameters | Â | Â | Beta distribution | Â | |
 |  |  | α | β |  |
Proportion of the cohort with co-morbid depression | 0.58 (0.40 - 0.75) | Â | Â | [33] | |
Probability of delayed response to PTSD treatment (assumed to occur in the 6th month after treatment) | 0.17 (0.12 - 0.22) | 35.3 | 172.1 | [53] | |
Probability of spontaneous remission from PTSD (applied to the non- treated population in the first 12 months) | 0.17 (0.12 - 0.22) | 35.3 | 172.1 | ||
Probability of spontaneous recovery from PTSD over 29 years (applied to the treatment non-responders in Markov part of the model) | 2 d year | 0.0083 | Â | Â | [53]*** |
 | 3-4th years | 0.0041 |  |  |  |
 | 5-6th years | 0.0021 |  |  |  |
 | 7-8th year | 0.0043 |  |  |  |
 | 9-11th year | 0.0035 |  |  |  |
 | 12-13th years | 0.0023 |  |  |  |
 | 14-16th years | 0.0013 |  |  |  |
 | 17-20th years | 0.0028 |  |  |  |
 | 21-29 years | 0.0020 |  |  |  |
Probability of spontaneous remission from depression | 0.53 (0.37 - 0.69) | 19.5 | 17.3 | [45] | |
Probability of re-occurrence of depression in PTSD treatment responders | 0.14 (0.09 - 0.18) | 36.6 | 224.6 | [33] | |
Mortality | 0.0 (in 10-14 y.o.) | Â | Â | ||
Age-adjusted probability of suicide in general population (per 3-month cycle) | 0.0000155 (in 15-19 y.o.) | Â | Â | Â | |
 | 0.0000316 (in 20-29 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.0000387 (in 30-40 y.o) |  |  |  | |
Age-adjusted probability of suicide in adolescents and young adults with PTSD + depression (per 3-month cycle) | 0.0 (in 10-14 y.o.) | Â | Â | ||
 | 0.000334 (in 15-19 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000343 (in 20-29 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000744 (in 30-40 y.o) |  |  |  | |
Age-adjusted probability of suicide in adolescents and young adults with depression only (per 3-month cycle) | 0.0 (in 10-14 y.o.) | Â | Â | [50] | |
 | 0.000186 (in 15-19 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000379 (in 20-29 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000465 (in 30-40 y.o) |  |  |  | |
Age-adjusted probability of suicide in adolescents and young adults with PTSD only (per 3-month cycle) | 0.0 (in 10-14 y.o.) | Â | Â | [51] | |
 | 0.000032 (in 15-19 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000066(in 20-29 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000080 (in 30-40 y.o) |  |  |  | |
Age-adjusted probability of death from other causes except suicide in adolescents and young adults (per 3-month cycle) | 0.000027 (in 10-14 y.o.) | Â | Â | ||
 | 0.000070 (in 15-19 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000104(in 20-29 y.o.) |  |  |  | |
 | 0.000169 (in 30-40 y.o) |  |  |  | |
Mental health care resource use parameters | Â | Â | Gamma distribution | Â | |
 |  |  | α | λ |  |
One month prescription of sertraline, (100 mg) | $24.66 | 96.04 | 3.89 | [56] | |
Cost per consultation with clinical psychologist/counsellor (MBS Australia Items 80000; 80010) | First consultation $140.90 | 96.04 | 0.68 | [55] | |
 | Subsequent consultation $96.00 | 96.04 | 1.00 |  | |
Cost per consultation with clinical psychiatrist (MBS Australia Items 296; 304) | First consultation $250.45 | 96.04 | 0.38 | [55] | |
 | Subsequent consultation $125.80 | 96.04 | 0.76 |  | |
Cost per consultation with general practitioner (monitoring and SSRI renewal if required) | $66.00 | 96.04 | 1.46 | [59] | |
Cost of individual consultation with social worker or participation in 6 parental group sessions (Social workers schedule fee, Items SW01; SW15). | $58.85 | 96.04 | 1.63 | [60] | |
Utility values | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 |  |  | Gamma distribution |  | |
No PTSD/No depression (population norm) |  |  | α | λ |  |
   10-30 year olds | 0.87 |  |  |  | |
   30-40 year olds | 0.85 |  |  | ||
PTSD only | 0.61 (0.43 - 0.79)*** | 96.04 | 157.4 | Â | |
PTSD + depression | 0.53 (0.37 - 0.69)*** | 96.044 | 181.21 | Â | |
Depression only | 0.46 (0.32 - 0.60)*** | 96.044 | 208.78 | Â |